AR5 Scenario Database

Introduction

This scenarios database documents the long-term scenarios reviewed in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It comprises 31 models (sometimes in different versions) and in total 1,184 scenarios. In an attempt to be as inclusive as possible, an open call for scenarios was made through the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) with approval from the IPCC WGIII Technical Support Unit. To be included in the database, four criteria had to be met. First, only scenarios published in the peer-reviewed literature could be considered, per IPCC protocol. Second, the scenario must contain a minimum set of required variables and some basic model and scenario documentation (meta data) must be provided. Third, only models with at least full energy system representation were considered given that specific sectoral studies were assessed in Chapters 8-11 of the report. Lastly, the scenario must provide data out to at least 2030. Scenarios were submitted by entering the data into a standardized data template that was subsequently uploaded to this database system administered by the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA). The AR5 scenario database is documented in Annex II, Section A.II.10, of the 5th Assessment Report of Working Group III. For the purpose of the assessment, scenarios have been grouped in various categories relating to, among other things, radiative forcing outcome in 2100, overshoot, technology availability and policy assumptions (see Annex A.II.10.3 for a detailed description). The classification of individual scenarios can be downloaded here.

Model comparison projects

A majority of scenarios was provided by model comparison projects which have published their scenario data in project specific databases. These project scenario databases can hold more information than is provided here. Scenario data from this site may be freely used for non-commercial and educational purposes with proper acknowledgment of the data sources. The data source is specified in the scenario name (i.e. the project name in most cases). Users are requested to ensure proper acknowledgment of the data sources of the scenarios they use as detailed below. Table A.II.15 from Annex II below provides information about the model comparison projects that are represented in the AR5 scenario database. In particular, it lists the number of models and scenarios included in the database, the areas in which models were harmonized, the leading institutions and references to the overview publications.

Table A.II.15. Model inter-comparison exercises generating transformation pathway scenarios included in AR5 database.

Model Intercomparison Exercise

Year Completed

Number of Models in AR5 scenario database

Number of Scenarios in AR5 scenario database

Areas of Harmonization

Lead Institution

Overview Publication

ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies—Supporting European Climate Policy)

2009

1

15

Technology availability, Mitigation policy

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)


Edenhofer et al., 2010

AME (Asian Modeling Exercise)

2012

16

83

Mitigation policy

Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL)

Calvin et al., 2012

AMPERE (Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates)

2013

11

378

Technology availability; mitigation policy; GDP; population

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

AMPERE2:

Riahi et al., 2014

AMPERE3:

Kriegler et al.,2014a


EMF 22 (Energy Modeling Forum 22)

2009

7

70

Technology availability, mitigation policy

Stanford University

Clarke et al., 2009

EMF 27 (Energy Modeling Forum 27)

2013

16

362

Technology availability, mitigation policy

Stanford University

Blanford et al., 2014; Krey et al., 2014; Kriegler et al., 2014c

LIMITS (Low Climate Impact Scenarios and the Implications of required tight emissions control strategies)

2014

7

84

Mitigation policies

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Kriegler et al., 2014b; Tavoni et al., 2014

POeM (Policy Options to engage Emerging Asian economies in a post-Kyoto regime)

2012

1

4

Mitigation policies

Chalmers University of Technology

Lucas et al., 2013

RECIPE (Report on Energy and Climate Policy in Europe)

2009

2

18

Mitigation policies

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Luderer et al., 2012a

RoSE (Roadmaps towards Sustainable Energy futures)

2013

3

105

Mitigation policy; GDP growth; population growth, fossil fuel availability

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Bauer et al., 2013; De Cian et al., 2013b; Calvin et al., 2014; Chen et al., 2014;Luderer et al., 2014

More detailed information on models, scenarios and references...

Database Tutorial

A short tutorial on the use of the web database can be found below. If you experience technical problems with this database, please contact the AR5 Database Administrator.

The Navigation tabs

At the upper end of the browser window five navigation tabs can be found that provide different functionality of the web database. These six tabs are described in more detail in the following section.

About tab

The About tab provides information about the database and gives instructions on how to use the database. The Regions, Sectors and Series tabs all allow to view the scenarios in the database. The difference between these three tabs for viewing is the way how scenario data can be combined for viewing.

Regions tab

The Regions tab allows selecting a single variable from a single scenario (e.g. total GDP in Market Exchange Rate for a baseline scenario from a specific model) in order to compare this selection across different regions. For variables that can be added in a meaningful way (e.g. GDP, total primary energy consumption) the graph that appears on the right hand side will be a stacked are graph while for variables that are not additive (e.g. price information) a line graph will be displayed.

Sectors tab

The Sectors tab allows selecting multiple variables from a single scenario and region. This view is most useful for displaying a set of variables from one sector, for example, all fuel types of industrial final energy consumption. Again, if the variables can be added in a meaningful way (e.g. different fuel types of one sector) a stacked area graph is shown; if this is not possible (e.g. for different fuel prices) a line graph is displayed. In case variables with different units are selected a warning is issued on the y-axis label of the graph in red. Please note that it is necessary to mark a variable name (so that it appears highlighted in blue) in addition to selecting variables for the graph on the right hand side to be updated (see also under (3.) Variables below).

Series tab

The Series tab allows selecting a single variable from multiple scenarios and regions. The preview graph on the right is always a line graph and is most useful to compare trends across different scenarios (and models) in one or multiple regions.

Common Features of the Regions, Sectors and Series tabs

In all three view tabs the following selections can be made in the navigation bars on the upper left-hand side of the browser window:

(1.) Regions: In the upper left area of the screen is a field named Regions. Depending on the tab (see above) you may select one or multiple regions for which the data is shown on the screen. The regions are organized in the two folders, the World and RC5 Regions.

(2.) Scenarios: This field includes the list of scenarios from which one or more scenarios can be selected. In addition to scenarios, for a number of variables historical and base year data can be shown to compare with scenario results.

(3.) Variables: In this field the variables can be selected for which the data is shown on the screen. Note that in the Sectors tab it is necessary to not only required to tick one or multiple variables for selection, but also to mark a variable name (so that is appears highlighted in blue) for the graph on the right hand side to be updated. It is not important which variable or variable category is marked to initiate the graph update. The definition of variables can be found in the standardized data template.

The Chart Preview on the upper right-hand side of the browser window shows the graph of the selected data (variable + scenarios + regions). In addition, the horizontally oriented Query Results area in the middle of the screen shows the data in tabular format.

It is possible to export the data either into Excel or two different graphical formats (PNG = portable network graphics, SVG = scalable vector graphics). In order to do so, select one of the options in the Output Options window at the bottom of the browser window. The field titled Notes shows additional information or explanatory text for the selected variables. The availability of notes is still under development and ultimate the contents will depend on input from modeling teams.

Download tab

The Download tab offers the possibility to download the entire content of the AR5 Scenario Database in one file, a zip archive that contains the data and comments provided by modeling teams about specific models, scenarios, variablesin or regions in csv format. To download the entire database it is necessary to enter your name and e-mail address (see privacy policy). In case of updates (e.g., error corrections in the underlying database) we will inform you by sending an e-mail to the address that you supply above.

Region definitions

The consolitated results in the database are shown at regional aggregations of the World and five regions (based on the definitions from the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs. These regions are defined as follows:

Aggregation on the five region level (see Annex II, Section A.II.2). It should be noted that these regions were also used in the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

OECD1990 = This region includes the OECD countries in 1990.
Aland Islands, Andorra, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Channel Islands, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Greenland, Guam, Guernsey, Holy See (Vatican City State), Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Italy, Japan, Jersey, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, San Marino, Spain, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States

EIT = Economies in Transition. This region is sometimes also referred to as Reforming Ecomonies of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (REF).
Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova (Republic of), Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,

ASIA = Non-OECD ASIA. The region includes most Asian countries with the exception of the Middle East, Japan and Former Soviet Union states.
Afghanistan, American Samoa, Bangladesh, Bhutan, British Indian Ocean Territory, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Heard Island and McDonald Islands, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Korea (Democratic People's Republic of), Laos (People's Democratic Republic), Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Federated States of), Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, New Caledonia, Niue, Norfolk Island, Northern Mariana Islands, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Pitcairn, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, US Minor Outlying Islands, Vanuatu, Viet Nam, Wallis and Futuna

MAF = This region includes the countries of the Middle East and Africa.
Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Congo (The Democratic Republic of the), Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mayotte, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Palestinian Territory, Qatar, Reunion, Rwanda, Saint Helena, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Syrian Arab Republic, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe

LAM = This region includes the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Anguilla, Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Bouvet Island, Brazil, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), French Guiana, French Southern Territories, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Mexico, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sint Maarten, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, US Virgin Islands, Venezuela

References

Updates

The table below contains a list of the different versions of the AR5 Scenario Database and which updates have been released since its publication. Users that have registered and downloaded the full data set via the Download tab, will be notified via e-mail in case of future updates.

Version Date Change Implications for WGIII AR5
1.0 05/13/2014 AR5 Scenario Database made public -
1.0.1 06/11/2014 MESSAGE V.2 RCP_8.5_MIT_4.5W and RCP_8.5_MIT_2.6W: NOx and Sulfur emissions in 2005 corrected None
1.0.2 06/29/2015 POLES EMF27, all scenarios: Variable "Land Cover|Cropland|Energy Crops" removed from database because of inconsistent definition (reported "potential area" for bioenergy from food crops and short rotation coppice instead of "actual area") None

Disclaimer

Liability

With respect to information available from this webpage, neither IIASA nor any of its employees make any warranty, expressed or implied, including warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, nor does IIASA assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, product, or process disclosed, nor does IIASA represent that its use would not infringe upon privately owned rights. The software is provided on an 'as is' basis and IIASA disclaims all liability of any kind whatsoever arising out of the use, or inability to use, the databases and all information and data contained within them. Parts of the pages or the complete model might be extended, changed or partly or completely deleted without separate announcement.

Referrals and links

This website may contain advice, opinions and statements from external websites. Hyperlinks to non-IIASA Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of, or responsibility for, the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations nor guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to other sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

Copyright

The information supplied on this site or parts thereof may be freely used for non-commercial and educational purposes. Data from this site is for informational purposes only. Information from this site may be reproduced with proper acknowledgment as defined above. Individual documents on this webpage may have different copyright conditions than IIASA; these conditions will be noted in the respective documents. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of IIASA, its National Member Organizations, or other supporting institutions.

Privacy policy

This privacy policy sets out how IIASA uses and protects any information that you give IIASA when you use this database. IIASA is committed to ensuring that your privacy is protected. Should we ask you to provide certain information by which you can be identified when using this website, then you can be assured that it will only be used in accordance with this privacy statement. IIASA may change this policy from time to time by updating this page. You should check this page from time to time to ensure that you are happy with any changes. This policy is effective from 17 June 2014. IIASA collects the following information:

  • Name
  • E-mail address
  • Details of the datasets downloaded
We require this information to understand your needs and provide you with a better service, and in particular for the following reasons:
  • Internal record keeping
  • To notify you if a downloaded dataset has been updated.
We are committed to ensuring that your information is secure. In order to prevent unauthorized access or disclosure, we have put in place suitable physical, electronic and managerial procedures to safeguard and secure the information we collect online.


IAMC AR5 Scenario Database, 2014
Available at: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB/


Responsible for this page: IAMC AR5 Database Administrator