ADVANCE (WP3) Database (version 1.0):

Introduction

This database includes scenarios designed to explore the impacts of subsidy removal on climate change mitigation efforts. The basic scenario assumptions are described in the table below; more information on the scenarios and their underlying assumptions can be found in the Nature paper.

Core scenarios Subsidies Oil price Climate policy Relevant part of the paper
LowOilSubsidies Maintain Low None Main figures in paper
LowOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 Low Low Main figures in paper
550LowOilSubsidies Maintain Low 550 Stabilization Discussed in paper
550LowOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 Low 550 Stabilization Discussed in paper
HighOilSubsidies Maintain High None Discussed in paper, Figures 1 and 2, and Supplementary Figures 4 - 9, 11 - 13
HighOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 High None Discussed in paper and Supplementary Figures 5 - 9, 11 - 13
Sensitivities Subsidies Oil price Climate policy Relevant part of the paper
SSP1LowOilSub Maintain Low None Testing the robustness of results against economic
different economic, technological, resource availability
and demographic trends. See Supplementary Text 7
and Supplementary Figures 14 - 17.
SSP1LowOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 Low None
SSP3LowOilSub Maintain Low None
SSP3LowOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 Low None
HighOilLowGasSub Maintain High None Testing the robustness of results under oil and gas price
decoupling. See Supplementary Text 8 and Supplementary
Figures 18 - 21.
HighOilLowGasRemoval Phase-out by 2030 High None
450LowOilSubsidies Maintain Low 450 Stabilization Testing the results under a 450 stabilization target
with high oil prices. Supplementary Text 6 and
Supplementary Table 17
450LowOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 Low 450 Stabilization
450HighOilSubsidies Maintain High 450 Stabilization
450HighOilRemoval Phase-out by 2030 High 450 Stabilization
LowOilZombieSub Higher production subsidies Low None Testing the results under higher production subsidies
assumptions. See Supplementary Text 9, Supplementary Table 18
and Supplementary Figures 22 - 25.
LowOilZombieRemoval Higher production subsidies
with phase-out by 2030		 Low None
LowOilZombieRemoval Higher production subsidies High None
LowOilZombieRemoval Higher production subsidies
with phase-out by 2030		 High None

This scenario exercise was part of the ADVANCE project and received funding from the European Union?s Seventh Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement # 308329.

A short tutorial on the use of the web database can be found below. If you experience technical problems with this database, please contact the ADVANCE (WP3) Database Administrator.

Tutorial

The Navigation tabs

At the upper end of the browser window are three navigation tabs that provide different ways of viewing the data in the web database. These three tabs are described in more detail in the following section.

Sectors tab

The Sectors tab allows the user to select multiple variables from a single scenario and region. This view is most useful for displaying a set of variables from one sector (e.g., all fuel types consumption in total primary energy supply). If the variables can be added in a meaningful way (e.g., different fuel types of one sector), a stacked area graph is shown. If this is not possible (e.g., for different fuel prices), a line graph is displayed. In case variables with different units are selected, a warning is issued on the y-axis label of the graph in red. Please note that for the graph on the right hand side to be updated, it is necessary to mark a variable name (highlighted in blue) in addition to selecting variables (see also the description under (3.) Variables below).

Series tab

The Series tab allows selecting a single variable from multiple scenarios and regions. The preview graph on the right is always a line graph and is most useful for comparing trends across different scenarios (and models) in one or multiple regions.

Scatter tab

The Scatter tab allows one to look at the relationship between two variables. One can select one variable from the navigation tree for the x-axis and another variable for the y-axis. It is also possible to examine growth rates and per capita, per GDP, and per final or primary energy values.

Common Features of the Sectors, Series, and Scatter tabs

In all three view-tabs, the following selections can be made by using the navigation bars on the upper left-hand side of the browser window:

(1.) Regions: In the upper-left area of the screen is a field named Regions. Depending on the tab (see above), you may select one or multiple regions for which the data are shown on the screen. See Region definitions for a description of each region.

(2.) Scenarios: This field includes the list of scenarios from which one or more scenarios can be selected. In addition to scenarios, historical and base year data are included for some variables and can be compared with scenario results. Note that only some emission and energy variables are included in the historical data.

(3.) Variables: This field includes a list of the variables that can be selected within the database. Note that, in the Sectors tab, one must not only select one or multiple variables, but also mark a variable name (highlighted in blue) in order for the graph on the right hand side to be updated. It is not important which variable or variable category is marked to initiate the graph update.

The Chart Preview on the upper right-hand side of the browser window shows the graph of the selected data (variable + scenarios + regions). In addition, the horizontally oriented Query Results area in the middle of the screen shows the data in tabular format.

It is possible to export the data either into Excel or two different graphical formats (PNG = portable network graphics, SVG = scalable vector graphics). In order to do so, select one of the options in the Output Options window at the bottom of the browser window. The field titled Notes shows additional information or explanatory text for the selected variables. The availability of notes is still under development and the contents depend on input from modeling teams.

Region definitions

All results are mapped onto the 10-region set (though the modelling is carried out at the models? native regions). The full list of the regions is given below, along with a sampling of countries that are included in each (the country lists are meant to be representative, not exhaustive). The exact countries contained in the regional mapping vary slightly and are reported in Supplementary Tables 10 ? 14 in the Nature paper.

Region Description
Africa Includes countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some models also include North African countries but others do not. For REMIND and WITCH, South Africa is included in the Rest of the World region.
China+ Primarily composed of China but in some models includes additional Asian countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, North Korea, and Mongolia.
Europe Eastern and Western European countries (i.e. EU27) but REMIND and WITCH also include Turkey.
India+ Primarily India but in some models also includes other South Asian countries such as Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan.
Latin America Latin American and Caribbean countries.
Middle East & North Africa (MENA) Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. This also includes North African countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and for REMIND it also includes the Central Asian former Soviet states. In GEM-E3, this region also includes other major energy producing countries such as Venezuela and Azerbaijan.
North America For most models this includes the United States of America and Canada but in REMIND, Canada is included in the Rest of the World region and for WITCH, Canada is included in the Pacific OECD region.
Pacific OECD OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries which are in the Eastern Hemisphere and abut the Pacific Ocean. For most models this region is dominated by Japan, Australia and New Zealand. For REMIND, only Japan is included, Australia and New Zealand are included in the Rest of the World region. WITCH also does not include Australia, which is instead part of the Rest of the World region. WITCH also includes Canada in the Pacific OECD.
Russia+ This region is dominated by Russia. For all models except REMIND, it also includes Reforming Economies which were part of the Soviet Union such as Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. WITCH also includes Turkey in this region.
Rest of Asia Includes other Asian countries which are not in the India or China regions such as South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. For WITCH, South Korea is included in the Rest of the World region.
Rest of the World Only exists for REMIND, WITCH and GEM-E3. For REMIND this includes Australia, Canada, Iceland, Norway, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine and some other smaller Countries. For WITCH this includes Australia, South Africa, and South Korea. For GEM-E3 this includes the rest of Sub Saharan Africa, the rest of North Africa, Latin America, Central Asia and several other smaller countries

Copyright

The data supplied on this site are for informational purposes only. Parts thereof may be freely used and distributed for non-commercial and educational reasons, as long as proper acknowledgment is given to the corresponding Nature paper:
 
Jewell, J. McCollum, D., Emmerling, J., Bertram, C., Gernaat, D., Krey, V. Paroussos, L., Berger, L., Fragkiadakis, K., Keppo, I., Failali, N.S., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., Vinichenko, V., Riahi, K. Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy exporting regions. Nature. (under review).

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ADVANCE (WP3) Database, 2017
Available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/ADVANCEWP3DB

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